China Real Time Report
Russell Leigh Moses is a Beijing-based analyst and professor who writes on Chinese politics. He is writing a book on the changing role of power in the Chinese political system.
The release of Ai Weiwei after 11 weeks of detention is clearly good news for those urging his freedom, even if the condition of his release is to stay quiet. But the sudden reappearance of the artist raises as many questions as it answers, chief among them: Why?
The easy answer is that Ai was released because the Chinese government succumbed to international pressure and global outrage.
But the real explanation lies elsewhere, in Chinese domestic politics. Ai’s incarceration was a direct expression of the battle being waged in Beijing over who gets to rule the country in the coming years.
The narrative in much of the West is that Ai Weiwei was detained because he was a critic of the Chinese government. International human rights organizations insist that this was one of those cases where the international community successfully stood up to Beijing, and that Ai’s freedom was due in direct measure to the force of global opinion. They point to museums and exhibitors who signed letters and staged exhibitions, and the continued complaints by officials interacting with their Chinese counterparts and raising Ai’s case as an irritant in relations with Beijing.
But while Ai found some measure of freedom, a number of his associates remain in custody or under surveillance. Nor was there any amnesty announced for other detainees currently under investigation. Silence about those cases should be no surprise, for Beijing has shown itself to be unconcerned about polishing its international image. Where international pressure is concerned—be it for revaluation of the yuan or efforts to ease tensions in the South China Sea—Chinese officials far prefer looking tough to acting tentatively.
Ai might have a high profile in some parts, but he is a minor casualty on the larger battleground of Chinese politics. That war continues, with no clear victor in sight. Will it be the Right wing of the Communist Party, with their ideas of political reform and legal protections for citizens who wish to assist the government by being part of the loyal opposition? Will it be the Leftists, who favor a retreat to socialist values, even if takes mass movements and nostalgia to arrive there? Or will it be the current leadership in the Middle, which thinks that the society has to be supervised and–largely unafraid of what the world thinks–often happiest when foreigners complain?
Ai likely lost his freedom because he forgot that all the social media in China and the world could not protect him from being knocked about. And he probably got it back because the hardliners that fight a hundred battles every day to secure stability impressed upon him that very fact.
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